Mål og strategisk management

Torben Bo Jansen 
Jansen, Torben Bo 1999: Backcasting – den nye dagsorden. Futuriblerne. 
Marts 1999, årgang 27, nr. 1. ...

Torben Bo Jansen, artikelsamling ...

Nørretranders, Tor 2017: Se frem - Fra opløsningstid til oplysningstid. People's Press. 

Vi kan forandre vores verden fordi vi kan forestille os en anden verden. ...

Pedersen, L. M. (2014). HVAD KÆMPER VI FOR? – Utopien om det gode samfund versus utopien om selvrealisering. Psyke & Logos, 35(1), 10.


Adaptive preference
Adaptive preference formation is the unconscious altering of our preferences in light of the options we have available. Jon Elster.


"FUTURES RESEARCH" - A Philosophical Analysis of Its Subject-Matter and Methods. 
Stig Andur Pedersen og Johannes Witt-Hansen.

What is the Future

Urry, John  2016: What is the Future? Polity Press.

1. Introduction: The Future Has Arrived
Part 1 A Brief History of the Future
2. Past Futures
3. New Catastrophic Futures
Part 2 - Complex Systems and the Future
4. Time and Complex Systems
5. Innovating Futures
6. Methods for Making Futures
Part 3 - Future Scenarios
7. Manufacturing Future Worlds
8. Cities on the Move
9. Climates
10. Conclusion: The Future of Futures ...

Imagined futures

Beckert, Jens 2016: Imagined futures: Fictional expectations and capitalist dynamics. 
Harvard University Press.
Part One: Decision-making in an uncertain world -- The temporal order of capitalism -- Expectations and uncertainty -- Fictional expectations. 
Part Two: Building blocks of capitalism -- Money and credit: the promise of future value -- Investments: imaginaries of profit -- Innovation: imaginaries of technological futures -- Consumption: value from meaning. 
Part Three: Instruments of imagination -- Forecasting: creating the present -- Economic theory: the crystal ball of calculative devices -- Conclusion: the enchanted world of capitalism. ...


Acting ahead of the future: towards an embodied, cognitive, social theory of anticipation
Bronislaw Szerszynski, Lancaster University

Paper presented in the stream ‘Philosophy and the Future’ at the First International Conference on Anticipation, 5-7 November 2015, Trento, Italy. ... pdf

Poli, Roberto 2017: Introduction to Anticipation Studies. Springer. ...

The UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems

Robert Rosen established the theory of anticipatory systems; John W. Bennett the connection between anticipation and resilience. 

Mathematical biologist Robert Rosen
(see his Anticipatory Systems. Philosophical, Mathematical and Methodological Foundations, New York, Springer, 2nd ed. 2012, and Life Itself. A Comprehensive Inquiry into the Nature, Origin, and Fabrication of Life, New York, Columbia University Press, 1991)

Anthropologist John W. Bennett
(see his Human Ecology as Human Behavior: Essays in Environmental and Development Anthropology, New Brunswick and London, Transaction Publishers, 2nd ed. 2002). ...

Real Utopias

Wright, Erik Olin 2010: Envisioning Real Utopias ...
Table of Contents
Rising inequality of income and power, along with the recent convulsions in the finance sector, have made the search for alternatives to unbridled capitalism more urgent than ever. ... ...

Robin Hahnel, Erik Olin Wright 2016: Alternatives to Capitalism: Proposals for a Democratic Economy. Verso Books. 

Alternatives to Capitalism: Proposals for a Democratic Economy presents a debate between two such possibilities: Robin Hahnel’s “participatory economics” and Erik Olin Wright’s “real utopian” socialism. ...

The Image of the Future 
Frederik L. Polak.
Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, 1973 ... pdf

Frederik L. Polak 1971: Prognostics: a science in the making surveys and creates the future. 
Elsevier, London, 1971.
Chapter 4: Philosophical models of the future ...

Fremtidens verden

Sørensen, Arne og J. Witt-Hansen red. 1975: Fremtidens verden: På vej mod det 21. århundrede. Politiken.

Dewey alternative futures 
Instead, Dewey argues, ‘liberalism knows that an individual is nothing fixed, given ready-made. It is something achieved, and achieved not in isolation but with the aid and support of conditions, cultural and physical: — including in “cultural”, economic, legal and political institutions as well as science and art’ (‘The Future of Liberalism’, LW11: 291).

John Dewey 1859 - 1952  
Dewey sometimes referred to his philosophy as instrumentalism rather than pragmatism

Books by Dewey


Hieronymus Bosch 
The Garden of Earthly Delights

the sceptical futuryst 
a blog about how we might feel tomorrow


Beckert, Jens  
Beckert, Jens 2016: Imagined Futures: Fictional Expectations and Capitalist Dynamics (Harvard Studies in Ukrainian S).
Amazon ... Google Books ... 

Dreborg, Karl H. 
Dreborg, Karl H. 1996. Essence of backcasting
Futures, Vol. 28, No. 9, pp. 813-828, 1996. ....pdf

Nye, D. E. (2004). Technological prediction. In M. Sturken, D. Thomas, & S. J. Ball-Rokeach (Eds.), Technological visions (pp. 159–185). Philadelphia: Temple University Press.

Porritt, Jonathon 2013: The world we made: Alex McKay's story from 2050. Phaidon Press.

Raskin, Paul 
Raskin, Paul  et al 2002: Great Transition
The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead ... pdf

Robinson, John B.

Robinson, J. 1982: Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis, Energy Policy 10 (4) (1982) 337–344.

Robinson, John B. 1988: Unlearning and backcasting: Rethinking some of the questions we ask about the future.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 33, Issue 4, July 1988, Pages 325-338

Robinson, J.B. 1990: ‘Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict’. Futures, October 1990.

Robinson, J., Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning, Futures, Volume 35, Issue 8, October 2003, Pages 839-856. ...pdf

Robinson, John, S. Burch, S. Talwar, M. O’Shea, M.Walsh 2011: Envisioning sustainability: Recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78: 756-768. ...

Sturken, M, D. Thomas, & S. J. Ball-Rokeach (Eds.), 2004: Technological visions. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.

Urry, John 2016: What is the Future?
Polity Press. ...

Wangel, Josefin  
Wangel, J. (2011a). Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development. 
Technological Forecasting Social Change, 78 (2011), pp. 872–882
Wangel, J. (2011b). Change by whom? Four ways of adding actors and governance in backcasting studies. Futures, 43 (2011), pp. 880–889.
Quist, J. and Vergragt
Quist, J. and Vergragt, P. J 2006: Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder
participation and proposal for a methodological framework. Futures, 38 (2006) 1027-1045. 

Institute for Social Futures 
Future-forming interdisciplinary research
Richard Harper

Transition scenario

Transition scenario 
Transition scenarios are descriptions of future states which combine a future image with an account of the changes that would need to occur to reach that future.


EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)

European Commission 2010: Europe 2020 Strategy

European Commission: Roadmap for 2050.


Economic Singularity

William D. Nordhaus 2015: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth 

The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy.

Long Waves

Nikolai Kondratiev’s “Long Wave”: The Mirror of the Global Economic Crisis

The Global Economy is Facing a "Long Wave" Recession.
...  the interest to the theory of grand cycles rejuvenates usually in the declining phases  ...

The declining phase 
from 2000-2007 till approximately 2015-2025 
The rising phase 
from 2015-2025 till 2035-2045 ...


Smil,Vaclav 2008: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years. MIT Press. ...

Journal of Futures Studies
Tamkang University, Taiwan

London Futurists

Forskere, organisationer og nationale- og internationale forskningsinstitutioner:

Ossip K. Flechtheim 
In 1943 Flechtheim coined the term "Futurology" as a systematic and critical treatment of problematic related to Future studies.

In the mid‑1940s the first professional "futurist" consulting institutions like RAND and SRI began to engage in long-range planning, systematic trend watching, scenario development, and visioning, at first under World War II military and government contract and, beginning in the 1950s, for private institutions and corporations.

Futurology books ...

EU Transnational Foresight Net
EU /Foresight science and technology
UK foresight programme ...

Realdania 2012: ”2050 - Der bli’r et yndigt land”
Rapporten tegner et detaljeret billede af Danmark i 2050. ...

Prioritering af Danmarks areal i fremtiden
Fonden Teknologirådet 2017. ...afslutningsrapport.pdf

The Natural Step

The Natural Step organisation  
The Natural Step is a non-profit, non-governmental organisation founded in Sweden in 1989 by scientist Karl-Henrik Robèrt

Karl-Henrik Robèrt 
The Natural Step Framework ...

1) Substances from the Earth’s crust must not systematically increase in the biosphere.
2) Substances produced by society must not systematically increase in the biosphere.
3) The physical basis for the productivity and diversity of nature must not be systematically
4) In order to meet the previous three system conditions, there must be a fair and efficient use
of resources with respect to meeting human needs. 

Holmberg, J. and Robèrt, K-H. (2000). "Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles – a framework for strategic planning." International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology 7:291-308. ... pdf

Jennifer R. DuBose, Interface Research Corporation
Annie R. Pearce, Georgia Institute of Technology ....PDF

Holmberg, J., & Robért, K. (1997). Back-casting from First Order Sustainability Principles: A Framework for Strategic Planning. Stockholm: The Natural Step Institute Ltd.

Altomare Nattrass, M.E. 2010: How are we to go on together? Dialogues on the social construction of sustainability.
Cases: IKEA, Interface, Nike, Starbucks, and the United States Army. ... 312 sider pdf.

Nattrass, B., and M. Altomare (1999). The Natural Step for Business: Wealth, Ecology
and the Evolutionary Corporation. Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers.

Nattrass, B. and Altomare, M. (2002). Dancing with the Tiger, Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers.

Robért, K.H. (2002). The Natural Step Story. Garbiola Island, British Columbia: New Society Publishers.

Robért, K. H., Holmberg J., & Broman, G. (1997). Simplicity Without Reduction:
Thinking Upstream Toward a Sustainable Society. Stockholm: The Natural Step Institute.

Causal Layered Analysis Defined 

Causal Layered Analysis: Sohail Inayatullah at TEDxNoosa ... ...


Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. 2017. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January): 254–80. doi:10.1016/j. techfore.2016.08.019

ILO: 2015. World Employment and Social Outlook the Changing Nature of Jobs. Geneva: International
Labor Organization. ...

Nordhaus, William. 2017. “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth.” w21547. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.doi:10.3386/w21547
www.ai2-s2 ... pdf

IFR. 2016. World Robotics Report 2016. International Federation of Robotics. ...

The impact of the technological revolution
on labour markets and income distribution ... pdf