Mål og strategisk management


The term "Backcasting" was coined by Robinson [Robinson, 1982] as a futures method to develop normative scenarios and explore their feasibility and implications. ...

J. Robinson, Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy 10 4 (1982), pp. 337–344.

FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight Guide 
The FOR-LEARN project aimed at improving accessibility to Foresight knowledge and promoting Foresight throughout Europe. The most important outcome of this project is the FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight Guide. ...


Definition af backcasting 
Begrebet backcasting blev introduceret af Robinson i 1982 i artiklen ‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis’, Energy Policy, December 1982. Robinson tilskriver Lovins den første anvendelse af backcasting metoden.
Backcasting metoden karakteriseres som beskrivelse af en ønskværdig fremtid og derfra backcasting tilbage til nutiden.

Metoden blev anvendt af Lovins til studiet af energi i fremtiden.
(Dreborg 1996:814).

Amory Lovins 
Lovins, Amory 1976: Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken? ...1976.pdf
Amory Lovins vision:
Bæredygtig kapitalisme

The essence

Backcasting: The essence of backcasting is to build bridges from the present to a desirable future
in a retrospective manner, while identifying the intermediate steps that lead to that future.

Backcasting emphasizes both the articulation of a societal and environmental vision, and the
identification and analyses of pathways to this vision. It aims to connect a vision for the future to
present-day decision making, putting the finger on key choices that have to be made now and in the near future. In addition, backcasting can be a powerful tool in the interaction with stakeholders as well – again, to connect vision with concrete near-term priorities for action and
responsibilities. The problems that backcasting has to address are characterised by complex, interrelated environmental, economic and social challenges, that call for a holistic vision involving
a whole-systems change. 

Robinson, J., Burch, S., Talwar, S., O'Shea, M. and Walsh, M., 2011. Envisioning sustainability:
Recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(5), pp.756-768 

TIAS Report Series Building Bridges from the Present to Desired Futures ... pdf